This training activity will be delivered as part of the Strategic Planning and Budgeting (SPB) project, funded by the European Union. The overall objective of the project is to contribute to strengthening of beneficiary countries’ capacity to design and implement medium-term macro-fiscal policy.

What you will learn

This one-week workshop, which will be delivered by the Joint Vienna Institute (JVI) in cooperation with the IMF, will present various forecasting tools and discuss the assumptions and limitations underlying different forecasting models. Participants will explore how to interpret and credibly convey forecast results, assess the uncertainty around the central forecast, and make use of outside forecasts. Ways to improve forecasts in some practical situations (e.g., in case of limited and low-quality data, or structural breaks) will also be discussed.

How you will benefit

The workshop will provide you with the necessary skills for forecasting key macroeconomic variables—including growth, current account, and inflation—and for gauging the sustainability of public debt. These forecasting skills contribute to the macroeconomic analysis needed for macro-fiscal planning and serve as key inputs for the preparation of EC surveillance reports (such as EFPs and PEPs) and other official reports about a country’s macroeconomic outlook.

Workshop topics

The following topics will be discussed during this five-day workshop:

Evaluating Regression Models
Properties of Time Series Data and Co-Integration
Vector Auto-Regressions and Error-Correction Models
Conditional Forecasting with Time Series Data
Forecasting with Panel and Cross-Section Data

Who should attend

The workshop has been primarily designed for government officials in South East Europe and Turkey who are involved in providing macroeconomic forecasts for the preparation of strategic budget and planning documents. Potential participants are expected to have professional experience developing forecasts and some knowledge of modeling and forecasting methodologies.

Your contributions

The workshop will be highly participatory. Participants will have the opportunity to share experience and knowledge.

Language of the course will be ENGLISH. Translation will not be provided.

Faculty

Luis Catao, JVI Senior Economist

Luis Catão has been a Senior Economist at the JVI since December 2013. He has also been a Senior Economist and acting Deputy Division Chief in the IMF Research Department. Mr. Catão’s previous assignments at the IMF include a wide range of operational responsibilities, including on countries with large IMF financial support programs. Prior to joining the IMF, he was assistant professor (tenure track) at the University of London and Fellow of the Institute of Latin American studies of the same university. He has published in the American Economic Review, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Development Economics, and other specialized journals. His work has been regularly presented at high-level academic and policy conferences and received press coverage by The Economist, The Financial Times, The Herald Tribute, The Washington Post, and Valor Econômico, among others. He holds a BSc in Electrical Engineering and a BA with honors from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, as well as an MPhil and a PhD from the University of Cambridge.

Maksym Ivanyna, JVI Economist

Maksym Ivanyna has been an Economist at the Joint Vienna Institute since June 2012. He holds a Doctorate in Economics from Regensburg University (Germany). He also obtained a Master’s Degree in Mathematics from Lviv National University (Ukraine), and M.A. degrees in Economics from Central European University (Hungary) and Michigan State University (USA). Prior to joining the JVI, Maksym had a number of consultancy jobs and internships at the IMF, World Bank, German Institute for Development, European Centre for Minority Issues, and Centre for EU Enlargement. His research portfolio includes publications and working papers in the fields of development, growth, corruption, governance, fiscal federalism, taxation, technology adoption and innovation.

Mikhail Pranovich, JVI Economist

Mikhail Pranovich has been an economist at the Joint Vienna Institute since October 2011. He previously headed the Monetary Analysis and Forecasting Division at the National Bank of Belarus, worked as a Research Fellow at Cambridge Finance and as an economist at the Resident Representative Office of the IMF in Minsk and the Regional IMF Office for Central and Eastern Europe in Warsaw. His primary expertise and research interests are in the areas of monetary policy, applied macroeconometrics, financial econometrics, asset returns predictability and investment portfolio allocation. Mikhail holds a Master's Degree in Mathematics and Economics from the Belarusian State University; an M.Sc. in Economics and Finance from the University of Warwick, UK; and a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Cambridge, UK.

Macroeconomic Forecasting