Understanding Baseline vs. New Policy Estimates

Apr 11, 2017 , Ljubljana, Slovenia Webinar
English

This webinar was delivered as part of the CEF’s PFM Learning Program aimed to strengthen beneficiary institutions’ capacities to establish well-functioning MTEFs as a key prerequisite for attaining fiscal discipline and consolidation.

ABOUT THIS WEBINAR

Many of countries in SEE region have introduced MTEFs based on a top-down budgeting approach to strengthen fiscal discipline and enable policies prioritization according to political objectives. However, the top-down phase of budget cycle provides optimal results only if it incorporates findings of the bottom-up process.

In annual budgeting, a key question is “what will it cost to continue the activities that have been funded this year?” - these estimates are typically then adjusted by ministries of finance and line ministries to make allocative decisions. With the baseline as the starting point, the main task of governments is to allocate fiscal space to new policy proposals.

With this objective in mind, this webinar explored how making a distinction between baseline expenditures (i.e. current policies) and those related to new policy initiatives can be essential for structuring budget ceilings. This approach has never been more needed than at the present when in most countries funds for new initiatives is limited, or even non-existent.

WHAT PARTICIPANTS LEARNED

The webinar was the opportunity to discuss how line ministries’ submissions of budget proposals in a form of (i) current and (ii) new initiatives could better direct limited budget allocations towards achievement of policy priorities, and constrain spending to meet medium-term fiscal objectives.

The webinar examined the tools that can be used for detailed assessment of policy expenditures, and discussed the implications that might emerge if budgeting procedures and fiscal rules are not followed. Furthermore, the webinar assessed the benefits ministries of finance could gain from presenting to government a costed list of new policy initiatives.

Finally, by presenting the practical experience of Slovenia and Albania, the webinar explored communication channels and the division of roles and responsibilities between line ministries, ministry of finance and government needed to establish this practice.

Ultimately, by attending this webinar, participants were able to:

  • understand the difference between baseline estimates and new policy initiatives,
  • appraise why this is beneficial for formulating a credible budget and strengthening medium-term budgeting prospective,
  • discuss why is establishment of regulatory framework and fiscal rules prerequisite for the success,
  • examine possible roles and responsibilities of line ministries in formulating budget ceilings,
  • identify compulsory elements of a ‘good’ budget call circular,
  • become familiar with available tools that can be utilized to identify potential savings in current policies and reallocate them to new initiatives,
  • and discuss how ministries of finance can instigate line ministries to find these savings.

 

PRESENTERS

The webinar combined subject matter presentations with question and answer sessions to enable active engagement of the audience.

  • Suzanne Flynn, PFM Advisor for SEE, IMF (up to 20 min)
  • Saša Jazbec, Budget Department Director, Ministry of Finance, Slovenia (up to 15 min)
  • Tjeerd Tim, Budget Policy Advisor, Ministry of Finance, The Netherlands (up to 15 min)
  • Gentian Opre, Budget Analysis and Programming Director, Ministry of Finance, Albania (up to 15 min)
  • Question and Answer Sessions (20 min) 

 

WHO PARTICIPATED 

This webinar was designed for:

  • financial officials working in ministries of finance and line ministries who actively participate in budget preparation and execution processes,
  • public sector officials who are responsible for managing policy programs,
  • officials involved in PFM reforms design,
  • and officials with interest in prospects for improvement of budgetary decision-making processes and procedures.

This webinar was publicly available, and there were no limits on the number of participants per country or organization. 

 

Practical information

When: April 11, 2017, from 13:00 to 14:30 CET. 

Where: From the convenience of personal computer, tablet or smartphone; participants were encouraged to jointly connect with your colleagues to the webinar

Language: English

Duration: up to 90 minutes

Participation at this webinar was free of charge.

Partners

This learning initiative was supported by:

International Monetary Fund Ministry of Finance Slovenia Ministry of Finance, the Netherlands