Revenue forecasts define the budget envelope and form the basis for effective medium-term budget planning. This workshop discussed how to perform effective and reliable public revenue forecasting analysis, and analyze the impact of tax policies on the economy with the ultimate objective to ensure a healthy fiscal situation.
What did participants learn?
The workshop helped participants better understand the:
- revenue forecasting process (incl. coverage and time-horizon, agencies involved, rules governing the process)
- data requirements and various approaches used to forecast the revenues from different types of taxes and to assess the impact of policy changes
- different perspectives of institutions involved in revenue forecasting and tax policy analysis
- importance of timely and effective coordination for developing uniform views on the macroeconomic outlook triggering the revenue forecast, and assessing the revenue foregone through tax expenditures
- nature and source of underlying macroeconomic assumptions, and scope for discretionary adjustments of forecasts
The workshop engaged officials from tax administrations as well as tax policy and budget departments at ministries of finance, as well as fiscal councils and independent forecasting institutes, accountable for revenue forecasting, macroeconomic, fiscal analysis, and budget planning. Participants have been actively engaged in discussions and practical exercises, and encouraged to share their experiences and country practices.
- EP (Erik) Kranendonk serves as an Economist and Policy Advisor at the Directorate for General Financial and Economic Policy (AFEP) at the Ministry of Finance of the Netherlands. He is in charge of preparing the revenue forecasts at the ministry. Several times a year he provides an update of the forecast of the about thirty Dutch national taxes for the budget. The corporate income tax and car taxes have his special (also policy-based) attention. Mr. Kranendonk has worked at the Ministry of Finance since 2011. Holding a Master’s degree in Economics from Rotterdam University, he received additional professional training at the Ministry of Economic Affairs.
- Gonzalo Caprirolo is the Chief Economist of the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Slovenia and heads the Policy Analysis Unit, which also monitors revenue forecast against unexpected changes in macroeconomic trends and external shocks. Prior, he served as senior economist at the Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development (IMAD); consultant at the IMF, UNDP and the Central Bank of Bolivia; Assistant Director at the Mexican Ministry of Trade; and senior analyst at a Mexican/Canadian government contractor in charge of managing public sector information systems. As delegate and in several leading roles, he has been representing Slovenia in a range of working groups and (sub)committees of the Council of Europe (CoE).
He holds a master’s degree from Columbia University (MIA), New York and master degree in economics from El Colegio de Mexico, Mexico City. His research and publications cover various topics such as: Euro area crisis and policy response, fiscal multipliers, fiscal framework, tax reform, monetary integration, the impact of pension reform on fiscal stance, impact of capital inflows, current account sustainability, fiscal stance and debt sustainability, public sector debt management framework, government’s debt portfolio management, banking system and minimum wage.
- Agustin Redonda is a fellow with the Council on Economic Policies (CEP), an international economic policy think tank for sustainability focused on fiscal, monetary and trade policy. He is also a trained TADAT Assessor - Tax administration Diagnostic Assessment Tool (TADAT). Agustin leads CEP fiscal policy program, which seeks to align fiscal policy and a broad sustainability agenda, with a particular focus on tax expenditures and their impact on job creation, innovation, inequality, and environmental resilience. Against this background, he is currently leading a group of think tanks working on a project to construct the first Global Tax Expenditures Database (GTED).
Prior to joining the CEP, he has been a research and teaching assistant with the Economics Department of the University of Lugano. He also worked for the OECD, as well as for the Ministry of Labour, Employment and Social Security (MTSS) in Argentina. Agustin holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Lugano, a MSc in Economics from University Paris I – Panthéon Sorbonne, a MSc in Economics from University Paris – Est Créteil, and a BA in Economics from the University of Buenos Aires.
Related recent CEF workshops have been addressing Revenue Forecasting and Tax Policy Analysis (2017) and Cost-Benefit Analysis of Tax Expenditures and other Revenue Measures (2018).
This learning initiative was supported by: