Improving the Reliability of Macroeconomic and Macrofiscal Forecasts
Improving the reliability of macroeconomic and macro-fiscal forecasts helps strengthen the planning, analysis, and assessment of policy making. It upholds the country’s standing in international markets and enhances its credibility vis-à-vis external partners. A good understanding of the economic outlook is critical for fiscal planning purposes by ministries of finance, and equally important to central banks in the conduct of monetary and financial policies. Official macroeconomic and macrofiscal forecasts in our constituency often suffer from inaccuracy and optimism bias.
Indeed, if fiscal projections are driven by over-optimistic growth forecasts, there is less incentive to undertake necessary consolidation and revenue mobilization, and consequently greater risk to fiscal outcomes and orderly budgetary execution. Similarly, reliable and well understood growth forecasts are essential if monetary policy is to be effectively calibrated to impact on aggregate demand.
How will you benefit?
To complement regional training in modeling and forecasting techniques, much of which is designed to provide methodological and economic knowledge, this learning initiative aims to strengthen the operational know-how and skills for using cutting-edge forecasting tools, and discuss the key challenges underlying forecast errors.
- As good and reliable forecasts are an essential input in the policy decision-making process, the event aims at improving this awareness, identifying priorities of what institutional aspects of forecasting process needs strengthening, and presenting tools to strengthen these arrangements.
- The focus of the event is on an overview of a range of forecasting methodologies and their applicability to participating institutions, given capacities and quality of data, thus establishing prerequisites for sound macroeconomic and macro-fiscal forecasting as well as increasing institutional capacities.
- The workshop will serve as a platform for exchange of practices and participants will discuss existing approaches to forecasting and cooperation among ministries, central banks, statistical offices and international institutions, and discuss the needs for technical assistance to forecasting and data improvement.
What will you learn?
During the event, we will address a range of crucial aspects linked to the following key areas:
- Forecasting methodologies
- Key institutional issues with respect to production of official forecasts that are used for budget planning
- Data Requirements
The workshop is designed for staff at i) ministries of finance or other government institutions producing macroeconomic forecasts for budgetary planning; ii) central banks forecasting departments iii) fiscal councils; iv) national statistical offices and statistical departments of central banks; and v) non-government institutes, as well as research and academic institutions producing macroeconomic forecasts.
The workshop will be delivered in English, and highly interactive, providing practical and workable solutions elaborated through a mix of expert-based learning, hands-on operational experience, and systematic exchange of knowledge and regional experience; and mapping out the current state in represented countries, i.e. through a pre-event survey and in-class discussion.
This learning initiative is supported by: