Intermediate Time-Series Analysis
This blended learning is a continuation of series of CEF learning initiatives on forecasting methodologies, data collection and quality in 2017 and Time Series Forecasting and Data Quality in 2018. The aim of this year’s blended learning is further strengthening of the knowledge and the skills of central bank and public finance officials from CEF constituency and beyond, in more complex time series analysis concepts and forecasting techniques.
How will you benefit?
The main goal of this blended learning initiative is to bring together finance officials to advance their knowledge in time series analysis as well as to improve significantly their understanding and application of forecasting techniques on selected macroeconomic variables (e.g. GDP, inflation, exports), in EViews, by using advanced-time series analysis methods.
This learning initiative will be delivered as blended learning course, consisted of both e-learning phase and a workshop.
The learning initiative will be divided into:
- E-learning phase: The online learning phase will take place on November 20 – December 04, 2019. It will serve as preparation for the face-to-face part of the course and will be delivered through the CEF Online Learning Campus.
However, participants that cannot attend the workshop in Ljubljana, are encouraged to apply and participate only in the e-learning phase. If you are interested only in the e-learning, please contact us so that we can consider your application.
The envisaged workload for participants is about 3 hours per week, consisting of: webinar sessions, reading materials, assignments, video lectures and an opportunity to connect with other course fellows to debate ideas and get help mastering addressed subject matters.
- Face-to-face workshop: at CEF in Ljubljana from December 9 - 13, 2019.
The workshop will provide lectures based on methodological refresher, accompanied by practical cases, sessions and discussions where participants will work on exercises with real data, using the EViews software package.
What will you learn?
Upon completion of this workshop, participants will be able to understand the concepts of:
- VAR models
- Structural VAR models
- Time Series models with error correction
- Non-linear Time Series models
Each of the abovementioned topics will be presented first theoretically. Later, they will be followed by exercises in EViews, intended to practice building and estimating the specific model type, as well as to learn about possible application of the models for estimation of effect of policy changes, forecasting or addressing specific analytical issues. Finally, at the end of each day a time for discussions will be allocated, whose main goal will be additional explanations by the faculty, as well as sharing national experiences.
This learning initiative will be organized in a highly participatory and interactive manner. Thus, the participants will be actively engaged in discussions through Q&A sessions and team work on case studies and exercises. Moreover, they will be strongly encouraged to exchange their national experiences, good practices and challenges.
Who should attend?
Finance officials from the CEF constituency countries and beyond are welcomed and strongly encouraged to apply. Invited are those finance officials engaged in econometric modeling, who are working in macroeconomic and research departments in ministries of finance, central banks, statistical offices, fiscal councils and tax authorities.
The applications from individuals who are not public officials will be considered according to the space availability.
Participants are encouraged to bring their own laptops with installed version of EViews. If not, computers will be provided by the CEF.
You can download free the last version of EViews on the following link.
To participate in the online pat of this blended learning, basic information technology is needed i.e. stable internet connection; and computer, laptop or tablet.
No fee will be charged. The CEF will cover the coffee breaks and lunches for all selected candidates. Participants should provide funding from their sending institution (or other donor) to cover flights, transfers and accommodation during the event.
Applications from countries beyond CEF constituency, will be considered, as far as space permits.
Applications need to be submitted no later than October 21, via online application form.
Candidates will need to be approved by the CEF; confirmations will be sent to selected candidates by October 25.
- Laurent Ferrara, PhD – SKEMA Business School
- Klodiana Istrefi, PhD – Banque de France
- Ana Grdović Gnip, PhD – University of Primorska
This learning initiative is supported by: